Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change based on a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble: A case study of An-Seong watershed in South Korea

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102491

Soyoung Woo, Wonjin Kim, Sun Woo Chang, Il-Moon Chung

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

The An-Seong watershed of South Korea.

Study focus

This paper presents the impact of climate change on seasonal hydrologic responses using the SWAT model. The effects of climate change have been assessed through a multi-GCM ensemble approach, employing the Taylor skill score to minimize uncertainties of individual climate models.

New hydrological insights for the region

Climate change significantly affected seasonal hydrological responses, primarily due to changes in precipitation and temperature. Future projections indicate an increase in precipitation across all seasons, with the most substantial rise during flood season (summer), marked by greater intensity. Temperature is expected to rise consistently across all seasons, and these changes have amplified hydrological responses, particularly during the dry season (winter). While precipitation increased during this period, the persistent rise of temperature led to elevated evapotranspiration regime. The analysis revealed a 10–20 % decline in groundwater recharge compared to historical conditions, highlighting an increased risk of winter drought and seawater intrusion in the An-Seong watershed. Proactive strategies designed to tackle these seasonal challenges are crucial for achieving sustainable water resource management as climate change continues to impact the region.

查看原文本刊更多论文

基于CMIP6多模式集合的季节水文对气候变化的响应——以韩国安城流域为例

研究区域：韩国安城流域。本文利用SWAT模型研究了气候变化对季节水文响应的影响。气候变化的影响已通过多gcm集合方法进行了评估，采用泰勒技能评分将单个气候模式的不确定性降至最低。气候变化显著影响季节性水文响应，主要是由于降水和温度的变化。未来的预估表明，所有季节的降水都将增加，其中在汛期（夏季）的增幅最大，其特征是强度更大。预计所有季节的气温都将持续上升，这些变化放大了水文反应，特别是在旱季（冬季）。在此期间降水增加的同时，气温的持续升高导致蒸散量增加。分析显示，与历史条件相比，地下水补给减少了10 - 20% %，突出表明安城流域冬季干旱和海水入侵的风险增加。随着气候变化对该地区的持续影响，旨在应对这些季节性挑战的积极战略对于实现可持续水资源管理至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.