Driving effects of U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks on gold reserve share

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104391

Ziheng Liu , Jiahui Zhang , Ran Gu , Qizheng Hu , Shouchao He

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Abstract

Using quarterly data from 105 countries from 2000 to 2023 and a theoretical model of central bank reserve portfolios that incorporates gold reserve, this study investigates the effects of United States (U.S.) monetary and geopolitical risks policy on the national gold reserve share. Results show that expansionary U.S. monetary policy, which increases dollar liquidity and lowers interest rates, generally prompts central banks to raise their gold reserve shares. A stronger positive correlation between the value of the U.S. dollar and gold assets further encourages this shift. Moreover, rising geopolitical risk has emerged as a key driver of central banks to increase their gold reserve share. Findings underscore gold's expanding role as a safe haven and a reserve asset comparable to the U.S. dollar. In response to U.S. monetary policy dynamics, China should pursue more diversified reserve asset strategies, enhance gold reserve management, and continue advancing Chinese yuan internationalization.

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美国货币政策和地缘政治风险对黄金储备份额的驱动效应

本研究利用2000年至2023年105个国家的季度数据和纳入黄金储备的央行储备组合理论模型，探讨了美国货币和地缘政治风险政策对国家黄金储备份额的影响。结果显示，扩张性的美国货币政策，即增加美元流动性和降低利率，通常会促使各国央行增加黄金储备份额。美元价值与黄金资产之间更强的正相关性进一步鼓励了这种转变。此外，不断上升的地缘政治风险已成为各国央行增加黄金储备份额的关键驱动因素。调查结果突显出，黄金作为避险资产和可与美元媲美的储备资产的作用正在扩大。为应对美国货币政策动态，中国应采取更加多元化的储备资产战略，加强黄金储备管理，并继续推进人民币国际化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Review of Financial Analysis BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.80%

发文量

366

期刊介绍： The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.