Space–time clustering of rabies in equines in Brazil from 2006 to 2023

IF 2.2 3区农林科学 Q1 VETERINARY SCIENCES

Research in veterinary science Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI:10.1016/j.rvsc.2025.105724

Valdir Vieira da Silva, Denny Parente de Sá Barreto Maia Leite, Lucilene Martins Trindade Gonçalves, Gustavo de Oliveira Alves Pinto, Pollyanne Raysa Fernandes de Oliveira, Rinaldo Aparecido Mota

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Rabies is a lethal zoonosis caused by the rabies virus (RABV), primarily transmitted by the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). Brazil, home to the largest equine population in South America, faces ongoing challenges with equine rabies, which impacts both the economy and public health. This study aimed to identify spatial and temporal patterns of rabies in equines in Brazil between 2006 and 2023. Data from the Zoosanitary Information System (SIZ) of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA) were used. The incidence risk (IR) was calculated for each region and Federative Unit. To identify spatial and temporal clusters, a spatiotemporal scan analysis was conducted using the Poisson model in SaTScan™. Temporal trends were analyzed using a segmented log-linear regression model in Joinpoint Regression. During the study period, 2170 cases of rabies in equines were reported in Brazil. The Southeast region accounted for 41.66 % of cases, followed by the Central-West (24.47 %). The Federative Units with the highest incidence risk were Espírito Santo (124.68/100,000 equines), São Paulo (69.97/100,000), and Rio de Janeiro (69.03/100,000). The retrospective spatiotemporal analysis identified four major clusters, notably in São Paulo, Mato Grosso, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, and Amazonas. The prospective analysis revealed active clusters in São Paulo, Espírito Santo, and Amazonas. Temporal trend analysis indicated a decline in equine rabies incidence in Brazil (APC: -3.9 %; CI: −6.2 to −1.5). The findings of this study provide valuable insights for the implementation of more effective preventive measures, directing epidemiological surveillance toward high-risk regions.

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2006 - 2023年巴西马狂犬病时空聚类分析

狂犬病是一种由狂犬病毒（RABV）引起的致命人畜共患病，主要由普通吸血蝙蝠（圆齿蝙蝠）传播。巴西是南美洲马种群最多的国家，它面临着马狂犬病的持续挑战，这对经济和公共卫生都产生了影响。本研究旨在确定2006年至2023年间巴西马狂犬病的时空格局。数据来自巴西农业、牲畜和食品供应部（MAPA）的动物卫生信息系统（SIZ）。计算每个地区和联邦单位的发病率风险（IR）。为了识别时空集群，使用SaTScan™中的泊松模型进行了时空扫描分析。采用关节点回归中的分段对数线性回归模型分析时间趋势。在研究期间，巴西报告了2170例马狂犬病病例。东南地区占41.66%，中西部次之，占24.47%。发病率最高的联邦单位分别是Espírito Santo（124.68/10万匹马）、s o Paulo（69.97/10万匹马）和里约热内卢de Janeiro（69.03/10万匹马）。回顾性时空分析确定了四个主要集群，特别是在圣保罗、马托格罗索州、Espírito圣州、巴西里约热内卢和亚马逊州。前瞻性分析显示活跃的集群在圣保罗，Espírito圣和亚马逊州。时间趋势分析表明，巴西马狂犬病发病率下降(APC: - 3.9%；CI:−6.2 ~−1.5)。本研究结果为实施更有效的预防措施，指导流行病学监测高危地区提供了有价值的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Research in veterinary science 农林科学-兽医学

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

4.20%

发文量

312

审稿时长

75 days

期刊介绍： Research in Veterinary Science is an International multi-disciplinary journal publishing original articles, reviews and short communications of a high scientific and ethical standard in all aspects of veterinary and biomedical research. The primary aim of the journal is to inform veterinary and biomedical scientists of significant advances in veterinary and related research through prompt publication and dissemination. Secondly, the journal aims to provide a general multi-disciplinary forum for discussion and debate of news and issues concerning veterinary science. Thirdly, to promote the dissemination of knowledge to a broader range of professions, globally. High quality papers on all species of animals are considered, particularly those considered to be of high scientific importance and originality, and with interdisciplinary interest. The journal encourages papers providing results that have clear implications for understanding disease pathogenesis and for the development of control measures or treatments, as well as those dealing with a comparative biomedical approach, which represents a substantial improvement to animal and human health. Studies without a robust scientific hypothesis or that are preliminary, or of weak originality, as well as negative results, are not appropriate for the journal. Furthermore, observational approaches, case studies or field reports lacking an advancement in general knowledge do not fall within the scope of the journal.