Preoperative prediction model for benign and malignant gallbladder polyps on the basis of machine-learning algorithms

Abstract

Background

This study aimed to differentiate between benign and malignant gallbladder polyps preoperatively by developing a prediction model integrating preoperative transabdominal ultrasound and clinical features using machine-learning algorithms.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical and ultrasound data from 1,050 patients at 2 centers who underwent cholecystectomy for gallbladder polyps. Six machine-learning algorithms were used to develop preoperative models for predicting benign and malignant gallbladder polyps. Internal and external test cohorts evaluated model performance. The Shapley Additive Explanations algorithm was used to understand feature importance.

Results

The main study cohort included 660 patients with benign polyps and 285 patients with malignant polyps, randomly divided into a 3:1 stratified training and internal test cohorts. The external test cohorts consisted of 73 benign and 32 malignant polyps. In the training cohort, the Shapley Additive Explanations algorithm, on the basis of variables selected by Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression and multivariate logistic regression, further identified 6 key predictive factors: polyp size, age, fibrinogen, carbohydrate antigen 19-9, presence of stones, and cholinesterase. Using these factors, 6 predictive models were developed. The random forest model outperformed others, with an area under the curve of 0.963, 0.940, and 0.958 in the training, internal, and external test cohorts, respectively. Compared with previous studies, the random forest model demonstrated excellent clinical utility and predictive performance. In addition, the Shapley Additive Explanations algorithm was used to visualize feature importance, and an online calculation platform was developed.

Conclusion

The random forest model, combining preoperative ultrasound and clinical features, accurately predicts benign and malignant gallbladder polyps, offering valuable guidance for clinical decision-making.