Critical neighborhood evacuation area identification

Abstract

Exposure to a range of hazards is a fact of life, but risk and vulnerability varies based on where you live, the places you frequent and your associated socio-economic characteristics. Many hazards trigger community responses that involve evacuation of people and property, a proven action that reduces the loss of life and injury. Effective and efficient evacuation requires many interdependent operations, including community notification, transportation assistance, management of traffic flows and safe locations to harbor people. However, this must be focused on those neighborhoods that are or could be in danger. Methods to both formalize and define evacuation neighborhoods, or critical clusters, are detailed. A new spatial optimization model is introduced for identifying these neighborhoods as well as their associated exit roads that may restrict traffic flow during an emergency. Evacuation vulnerability in coastal Santa Barbara is undertaken, demonstrating the heterogeneous risk that communities face due to inherent bottlenecks in transportation infrastructure. The findings highlight that there are many potentially difficult neighborhoods to evacuate during an emergency, and it is critical that these areas have operational plans in place for ensuring that exit roads remain functional, free of accidents or other disruptions, to ensure the safe movement of people.