Increases in the world’s most extreme wildfire events probably driven by fire size and simultaneity

Abstract

arising from Cunningham, C. X. et al. Nature Ecology & Evolution https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02452-2 (2024)

In contrast to the widespread perception of increases in extreme wildfire behaviour, quantitative evidence supporting presumed global increases of fire intensity is rare. Recently, Cunningham et al.¹ analysed temporal patterns of fire radiative power (FRP) and claimed that there had been an “increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth between 2003 and 2023”. We applaud their intent at addressing the complex issue of changes in fire intensity, but note that major misunderstandings on the meaning and drivers of FRP challenge these findings. Our revised analyses, which control for active fire detections, indicate that the intensity of the “most extreme wildfire events”, as selected by them (ref. ¹), has probably decreased. We will first explain the problems in using their FRP product as an indicator of fire intensity and then revise their conclusions on changes in the frequency and intensity of fire events. Evidence for increases in global wildfire intensity remain elusive and the results from ref. ¹ probably indicate increases in either size or number of simultaneous fires.