Expiration of the Expanded Child Tax Credit and Energy Insecurity in US Households With Children, 2021-2022.

Abstract

Objectives. To assess the relationship between the expiration of the expanded child tax credit (ECTC) and changes in energy insecurity among US households with children from 2021 to 2022. Methods. We used nationally representative survey data to evaluate changes in energy insecurity among credit-eligible versus -ineligible households during and after the ECTC expansion. We performed difference-in-differences analyses to estimate changes in energy insecurity in the 2 groups and conducted stratified analyses by percentage of the federal poverty line. Results. There was a 0.95 percentage point increase in inability to pay energy bills (95% confidence interval = 0.07, 1.85) among households with children but no difference in other measures of energy insecurity. Stratified analyses showed that households at 200% to 399% and 400% to 599% of the federal poverty line experienced increases in energy insecurity after expiration of the ECTC. We saw no differences in the lowest-income groups (< 200% federal poverty line). Conclusions. The expiration of the ECTC was associated with increased inability to pay energy bills, suggesting that the credit prevented some forms of energy insecurity in households with children. Associations were limited to middle-income groups, indicating benefits were limited to this income stratum. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 5, 2025:e1-e10. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2025.308105).