Dual effects of climate change and socioeconomic development on flood exposure in the Yellow River Basin, China

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102504

Yixin Sun , Qiang Zhang , Gang Wang , Chong-Yu Xu , Vijay P. Singh , Da Liu , Kaiwen Zhang , Anlan Feng , Hushuang Ma

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China.

Study focus

This research constructs and evaluates future flood-inundated urban land, population exposure, and GDP exposure in the YRB under various SSP-RCP scenarios. It also discusses the contributions of different factors to changes in exposure and quantifies the future flood control efficiency of flood protection measures.

New hydrological insights for the region

We find that provinces in the lower YRB have a higher proportion of flood-inundated urban land. By the end of the 21st century, the proportion of flood-inundated urban land of the cities in lower YRB is expected to increase. Meanwhile, the average population exposure in the YRB under different SSP scenarios will decrease by 6.22–47.23 %, while GDP exposure will increase by 68–72 % across all SSP scenarios. Compared to climate change, socio-economic development is the primary factor influencing flood exposure. Considering flood protection measures, the lower YRB exhibit higher flood control efficiency, while middle and upper YRB still face high exposure due to insufficient effectiveness of protection measures. Protective efficiency of existing flood control measures will further decline with climate change: by the end of the 21st century, only 25 % of cities in the YRB will effectively reduce population exposure, and 35 % will mitigate GDP exposure.

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气候变化和社会经济发展对黄河流域洪涝灾害的双重影响

研究区域：中国黄河流域。本研究构建并评估了不同SSP-RCP情景下长江三角洲地区未来洪水淹没的城市土地、人口暴露和GDP暴露。讨论了不同因素对暴露变化的贡献，量化了未来防洪措施的防洪效率。研究发现，长江下游省份的城市被洪水淹没的比例较高。到21世纪末，长江下游城市被洪水淹没的城市土地比例预计将增加。与此同时，在不同SSP情景下，长江三角洲地区的平均人口暴露将减少6.22 - 47.23%，而GDP暴露在所有SSP情景下将增加68 - 72%。与气候变化相比，社会经济发展是影响洪涝灾害的主要因素。从防洪措施来看，长江下游的防洪效率较高，而中上游由于防洪措施的有效性不足，仍然面临较高的暴露。现有防洪措施的防护效率将随着气候变化而进一步下降：到21世纪末，长江三角洲地区只有25%的城市能有效减少人口暴露，35%的城市能有效减轻GDP暴露。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.