War beyond national borders: Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on hotel performances in neighbouring countries

Abstract

We use the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine to examine the effects of war on hotel performance in neighbouring countries and their capitals. Utilizing weekly data on prices, occupancy, and revenue, we apply a linear approach within clusters of observations and a non-linear approach across all observations to estimate the impact of trade, tourism fluctuations, migration, and internet-based interest in Ukraine and the war. The initial shock disproportionately affected occupancy and revenues, while prices remained relatively stable, particularly in capital city hotel markets. Migration effects evolved over time as the number of Ukrainian beneficiaries of temporary protection increased, shifting from negative to positive impacts on hotel performance. The effects of international economic sanctions on trade were more pronounced in national markets than in capital cities, particularly for hotel prices. Overall, the findings confirm the increasing resilience of the hotel sector over time.