{"title":"Estimating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID mortality using reductions in influenza mortality as an effect indicator.","authors":"Robert D Morris","doi":"10.1057/s41271-025-00570-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study uses influenza mortality reduction (IMR) as an indicator of the aggregate effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI's) on the spread of respiratory infections to assess their impact on COVID mortality. Age-adjusted COVID mortality for US states were modeled using four variables: COVID mortality prior to introduction of NPI's, vaccination rates, IMR relative to 2016-2019, and population density. A simple linear model of the entire pandemic with only these variables explained 66% of the variability in COVID mortality with IMRs affecting the first two years and vaccination having an impact in the second and third year. A counterfactual model of no NPI's suggests they prevented 850,000 COVID related deaths in the United States. These results support the use of IMR's as an indicator of the aggregate impact of NPIs for controlling transmission of respiratory infections, including COVID and suggest that COVID mortality would have been almost 75% higher without them.</p>","PeriodicalId":50070,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Health Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Public Health Policy","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41271-025-00570-0","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study uses influenza mortality reduction (IMR) as an indicator of the aggregate effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI's) on the spread of respiratory infections to assess their impact on COVID mortality. Age-adjusted COVID mortality for US states were modeled using four variables: COVID mortality prior to introduction of NPI's, vaccination rates, IMR relative to 2016-2019, and population density. A simple linear model of the entire pandemic with only these variables explained 66% of the variability in COVID mortality with IMRs affecting the first two years and vaccination having an impact in the second and third year. A counterfactual model of no NPI's suggests they prevented 850,000 COVID related deaths in the United States. These results support the use of IMR's as an indicator of the aggregate impact of NPIs for controlling transmission of respiratory infections, including COVID and suggest that COVID mortality would have been almost 75% higher without them.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Public Health Policy (JPHP) will continue its 35 year tradition: an accessible source of scholarly articles on the epidemiologic and social foundations of public health policy, rigorously edited, and progressive.
JPHP aims to create a more inclusive public health policy dialogue, within nations and among them. It broadens public health policy debates beyond the ''health system'' to examine all forces and environments that impinge on the health of populations. It provides an exciting platform for airing controversy and framing policy debates - honing policies to solve new problems and unresolved old ones.
JPHP welcomes unsolicited original scientific and policy contributions on all public health topics. New authors are particularly encouraged to enter debates about how to improve the health of populations and reduce health disparities.
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