Landscape Genomics Provides Insights Into Climate Change-Driven Vulnerability in Torrent Frogs (Ranidae: Amolops).

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity worldwide, with amphibians being particularly affected. Predicting the future of amphibians, a critical group for maintaining biodiversity and for balancing ecosystem structure and function, is essential for effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we used Amolops species as a model to assess their vulnerabilities under future climate change. Through genotype-environment association (GEA) analyses, we identified climate-associated SNPs, revealing that temperature and precipitation were key drivers for local adaptation in these species. Genetic offset analysis showed that the marginal and high-latitude populations of the Amolops mantzorum and Amolops monticola groups were at greater risk of local extinction as a result of a mismatch of genetic-environmental associations under future climate conditions. Ecological niche models predicted that, from 2011 to 2100, approximately 67% of Amolops species would experience significant habitat loss. We introduced the life strategy index (LSI) to assess species vulnerability, considering the interplays of evolution, ecology, and colonisation. Our LSI analysis showed that Amolops deng and Amolops tuberodepressus face a high extinction risk, in contrast with A. mantzorum, features strong adaptability and a low extinction risk. The LSI framework not only enables the systematic assessment of species vulnerability but also identifies key contributing factors through comprehensive evaluation across ecological, evolutionary, and colonisation dimensions, thereby facilitating the development of targeted conservation strategies.