Regional electric vehicle roadmap and strategy in Japan based on a lifecycle optimization model

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108437

Yuya Nakamoto , Ryosuke Yokoi , Shohei Tokito

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Vehicle electrification reduces well-to-wheel emissions but may not lower lifecycle CO₂ (LC-CO₂) emissions. This study uses a lifecycle optimization (LCO) model to identify the optimal fuel type progression to minimize LC-CO₂ emissions. By combining LCO with product stock-flow analysis, we extend optimization from individuals to regions and from a single year to 2020–2050, establishing a regional electrification roadmap using Japan as a case study. The optimal strategy outperforms other measures in emission reduction. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption reduces well-to-wheel and domestic LC-CO₂ emissions, aiding to reach the national target. However, if global LC-CO₂ emissions are not effectively mitigated, optimization may require limiting BEV sales to 15 %. In addition, meeting domestic targets may increase emission transfers to other regions, as BEV transfers are higher than other fuel types. To ensure BEVs contribute to global emission reductions, their deployment must be paired with lifecycle and international supply chain emission reductions.

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基于生命周期优化模型的日本区域电动汽车路线图与战略

汽车电气化减少了从油井到车轮的排放，但可能无法降低整个生命周期的二氧化碳（LC-CO2）排放。本研究使用生命周期优化（LCO）模型来确定燃料类型的最佳级数，以最大限度地减少LC-CO2排放。通过将LCO与产品库存流分析相结合，我们将优化从个人扩展到区域，从一年扩展到2020-2050年，并以日本为例建立了区域电气化路线图。最优策略在减排方面优于其他措施。电池电动汽车（BEV）的采用减少了从油井到车轮的排放和国内的LC-CO2排放，有助于实现国家目标。然而，如果全球低碳二氧化碳排放不能有效缓解，优化可能需要将纯电动汽车的销量限制在15%。此外，满足国内目标可能会增加排放转移到其他地区，因为纯电动汽车的转移高于其他燃料类型。为了确保纯电动汽车为全球减排做出贡献，它们的部署必须与生命周期和国际供应链减排相结合。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.