Does the prospect of upward mobility undermine support for redistribution?

Abstract

Despite substantial economic inequality in the United States, many Americans who would benefit from redistributive economic policies vote against them. This opposition could be justified by an exaggerated belief in the prospects of upward mobility. That is, people may oppose higher taxes on the largest incomes and estates because they overestimate the degree to which they would be subject to them. This research employs an experimental approach to studying Americans’ beliefs about their own prosperity and correlates these beliefs with support for redistribution. The results are not consistent with the theory that overconfidence about future prosperity impairs Americans’ support for redistribution. Instead, people report ideological stances tolerant of economic inequality and opposing redistribution, largely independent of their private economic interests.