Increased water availability and high flows in an ungauged Kenyan catchment: A comprehensive SWAT+ model evaluation for climate change assessment

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102497

Pablo Sarmiento, Jingshui Huang, Timo Schaffhauser, Markus Disse

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

The Sand River Basin, Kenya

Study focus

This study presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing climate change impacts in ungauged basins. A systematic approach was applied to evaluate model performance and conduct a robust analysis of hydrological responses to climate change. Five remote sensing evapotranspiration products were evaluated, with the best-performing product selected for further analysis, including climate period robustness and cross-validation with soil moisture. Climate scenarios were constructed based on three pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5) for near (2025–2054) and far future (2070–2099) periods, using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the ISIMIP3b dataset linked to CMIP6.

New hydrological insights for the region

Results show projected increases in temperature and precipitation across all climate scenarios, becoming more pronounced in the far future under SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5, where early rains are expected in both rainy seasons. The hydrological responses indicate increases in water availability, with strong rises in high flows. These projections are most significant during the far future where the annual average water yield is expected to increase to 179.2 mm (+154.9 %) under SSP3–7.0 and to 185 mm (+163.1 %) under SSP5–8.5. These results highlight the potential implications of climate change on the hydrological components of the basin, providing valuable insights for mitigation and adaptation strategies in the region.

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肯尼亚未计量集水区水资源供应增加和高流量：气候变化评估的SWAT+综合模型评估

研究区域肯尼亚沙河流域研究重点本研究提出了一种评估未测量流域气候变化影响的综合方法。我们采用了一种系统的方法来评估模型的性能，并对水文对气候变化的响应进行了稳健的分析。对5个遥感蒸散发产品进行了评估，选择了表现最佳的产品进行进一步分析，包括气候期稳稳性和与土壤湿度的交叉验证。基于3个路径（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5），利用与CMIP6相关的ISIMIP3b数据集的5个一般环流模式（GCMs），构建了近（2025-2054）和远（2070-2099）时期的气候情景。结果表明，在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5下，所有气候情景下的温度和降水预估都将增加，在遥远的未来变得更加明显，预计两个雨季都将出现早雨。水文响应表明可用水量增加，高流量大幅增加。这些预测在遥远的未来最为显著，在SSP3-7.0条件下，年平均产水量预计将增加到179.2 mm(+154.9 %)，在SSP5-8.5条件下增加到185 mm（+163.1 %）。这些结果突出了气候变化对流域水文成分的潜在影响，为该地区的减缓和适应战略提供了宝贵的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.