Effects of Solar Flares on the Ionosphere of Mars: Comparison of Observed and Predicted Electron Density Profiles From 15 to 26 April 2001

Abstract

Solar flares significantly affect Mars's ionosphere, yet there are few comparisons between observed and simulated densities in the M1 and M2 ionospheric layers during solar flares. Here we compare observed and simulated electron density profiles for the X14.4 solar flare of 15 April 2001 and the M7.8 solar flare of 26 April 2001. We use observations from Mars Global Surveyor radio occultations and simulations from the Mars Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (M-GITM). Due to poor constraints on the solar spectrum incident upon Mars at this time, simulated M2 electron density values were 50% larger than observed. Yet the relative changes in M2 electron density during these two flares were reproduced to 10% accuracy. When accurate solar irradiance data are available, absolute M2 electron density values are simulated accurately. Due to the omission of electron impact ionization from the M-GITM model, the simulated M1/M2 density ratio was under-predicted by a factor of approximately 3. Yet the relative changes in M1 electron density during these two flares were reproduced to 20% accuracy. The model can accurately predict relative changes in M1 and M2 electron densities during a solar flare. If accurate solar irradiance data are available, it can accurately predict absolute changes in M2 electron densities. If a simple parameterization of electron impact ionization were incorporated into the model, then it would likely predict absolute changes in M1 electron densities accurately as well. The M-GITM model is well-suited to studies of time-varying phenomena in the ionosphere of Mars.