The Stock Market's Anticipation of the Trump 2024 Election: The Case of Sustainable Business Models

IF 12.5 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Business Strategy and The Environment Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI:10.1002/bse.4371

Dennis Koch, Dirk Schiereck

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines the impact of green revenues on US stock price reactions around Donald Trump's 2024 election win. Firms' green revenue share (GRS) is significantly associated with negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) post‐election, exhibiting a nonlinear effect that intensifies at higher GRS levels. However, stock markets showed no anticipating revaluation of green business models during the weeks before the election. Instead, investors reacted sharply to two unanticipated key pre‐election events, the Trump assassination attempt and Harris' candidacy announcement, highlighting sensitivity to anticipated shifts in green policy. Remarkably, the revaluation of green business models did not take place uniformly across the entire country. The state political environment moderates this effect, as green firms in Democratic states experienced more negative CARs than those in Republican states.

查看原文本刊更多论文

股市对特朗普2024年大选的预期：可持续商业模式的案例

这项研究考察了绿色收入对唐纳德·特朗普赢得2024年大选后美国股价反应的影响。企业的绿色收益份额（GRS）与选举后的负累积异常收益（CARs）显著相关，并表现出非线性效应，在较高的GRS水平上加剧。然而，在大选前几周，股票市场并没有表现出对绿色商业模式重估的预期。相反，投资者对特朗普遇刺未遂和哈里斯宣布参选这两个出人意料的选举前关键事件反应强烈，突显了对环保政策预期转变的敏感性。值得注意的是，对绿色商业模式的重新评估并不是在全国统一进行的。州的政治环境缓和了这种影响，因为民主党州的绿色公司比共和党州的绿色公司经历了更多的负面car。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Business Strategy and The Environment Multiple-

CiteScore

22.50

自引率

19.40%

发文量

336

期刊介绍： Business Strategy and the Environment (BSE) is a leading academic journal focused on business strategies for improving the natural environment. It publishes peer-reviewed research on various topics such as systems and standards, environmental performance, disclosure, eco-innovation, corporate environmental management tools, organizations and management, supply chains, circular economy, governance, green finance, industry sectors, and responses to climate change and other contemporary environmental issues. The journal aims to provide original contributions that enhance the understanding of sustainability in business. Its target audience includes academics, practitioners, business managers, and consultants. However, BSE does not accept papers on corporate social responsibility (CSR), as this topic is covered by its sibling journal Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management. The journal is indexed in several databases and collections such as ABI/INFORM Collection, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, BIOBASE, Emerald Management Reviews, GeoArchive, Environment Index, GEOBASE, INSPEC, Technology Collection, and Web of Science.