Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields are underestimated.

Abstract

Crop simulation models are routinely used to project the impacts of climate change on crop yields. However, such models perform poorly when simulating extreme historical events. We reviewed current crop models according to the processes they simulate. The review suggests the inability of most models to simulate several mechanisms of adverse climatic impacts on crops, such as those caused by heavy rain and waterlogging. Current crop models are therefore likely to increasingly underestimate climate impacts on crops if adverse climate conditions escalate in frequency and severity as expected. Improved modeling is crucial to accurately project crop yields and enhance the resilience of global food systems under extreme weather.