Weather related disasters in South Africa from 1980 to 2023

Abstract

This study presents an analysis of weather-related disasters in South Africa (SA), during the period 1980 to 2023. The data used includes the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) disaster list, the fifth generation European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis (ERA5), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) satellite imagery as well as the South African Weather Service synoptic charts for weather systems identification. Floods and storms emerge as the most prevalent disasters, particularly affecting KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province (in the east of SA), with the eThekwini metropolitan municipality (metro) recording the most events. Although KZN receives substantial rainfall, no evidence suggests eThekwini experiences more rainfall than other districts in the province, suggesting human influences associated with urbanisation in disaster patterns. Cape Town metro reports the highest number of disasters in the western part of the country, associated with more rainfall, yet human factors may also contribute. Cut-off low systems and upper troughs which classify as mid-troposphere mid-latitude systems triggered the most floods and storms, while ex-tropical cyclones (ETCs) caused only four disasters during the study period. Upper Perturbations also resulted in floods and storm disasters indicating a need for forecasters to also pay attention to smaller scale processes. These findings enhance our understanding of weather-related disaster risks in South Africa, providing valuable insights for climate resilience and proactive disaster management. Given the reliance on the EM-DAT database, the potential for unrecorded disaster events introduces a limitation that may influence the conclusions drawn from this analysis.