Evaluation of dengue fever vulnerability in south and southeast asian countries: A multidimensional approach

IF 4.7 3区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection and Public Health Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI:10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102849

Yawen Wang , Conglu Li , Shi Zhao , Guozhang Lin , Xiaoting Jiang , Shi Yin , Mu He , Qianyu Wu , Zihao Guo , Yuchen Wei , Chao Ren , Ka Chun Chong

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Climate change is raising the risk of dengue fever outbreaks in South and Southeast Asia, where public health challenges persist. Warmer temperatures promote year-round mosquito breeding and pathogen transmission, particularly in crowded urban areas. This underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive assessment to develop effective prevention strategies and improve health outcomes. This study evaluated the relationship between dengue fever vulnerability and disease incidence in three countries in the region.

Methods

Monthly dengue surveillance data from 2012 to 2018 were collected in Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand, alongside environmental and socioeconomic data. Principal component analysis and binomial regression model were used to calculate the vulnerability index and evaluate the relationship between dengue infection, vulnerability, and its seasonality.

Results

The results indicated significant spatial variations in vulnerability across the three countries. High-vulnerability regions included western coastal Sri Lanka, western and southern Thailand, and eastern Malaysia, with notable seasonal fluctuations in high-risk areas. Areas with higher vulnerability levels were associated with increased dengue fever incidence rate ratios (IRRs), particularly in Sri Lanka (IRR= 1.97, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–3.65) and Thailand (IRR= 14.56, 95 % CI: 5.55–39.90). Notably, the IRR increased significantly during the warm seasons, particularly in August in Sri Lanka (high vs. low, IRR= 6.11, 95 % CI: 2.83–13.47) and in June in Thailand (middle-high vs. low, IRR= 23.61, 95 % CI: 9.39–61.67).

Conclusions

The spatial heterogeneity of dengue vulnerability suggests that targeted public health interventions are essential for mitigating dengue fever risks, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate change.

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南亚和东南亚国家登革热易感性评价：多维方法

气候变化正在增加南亚和东南亚爆发登革热的风险，这些地区的公共卫生挑战依然存在。气温升高促进全年蚊子繁殖和病原体传播，特别是在拥挤的城市地区。这突出表明迫切需要进行全面评估，以制定有效的预防战略和改善健康结果。本研究评估了该地区三个国家的登革热易感性与疾病发病率之间的关系。方法收集斯里兰卡、马来西亚和泰国2012 - 2018年登革热监测数据，以及环境和社会经济数据。采用主成分分析和二项回归模型计算登革热易感性指数，评价登革热感染、易感性及其季节性之间的关系。结果三个国家的脆弱性存在显著的空间差异。高脆弱性地区包括斯里兰卡西部沿海地区、泰国西部和南部地区以及马来西亚东部地区，高风险地区季节性波动明显。脆弱程度较高的地区与登革热发病率比（IRRs）增加有关，特别是在斯里兰卡（IRR= 1.97,95 %可信区间[CI]: 1.08-3.65）和泰国（IRR= 14.56,95 % CI: 5.55-39.90）。值得注意的是，IRR在暖季显著增加，特别是8月份斯里兰卡（高对低，IRR= 6.11,95 % CI: 2.83-13.47）和6月份泰国（中高对低，IRR= 23.61,95 % CI: 9.39-61.67）。结论登革热易感性的空间异质性表明，有针对性的公共卫生干预措施对于降低登革热风险至关重要，特别是在易受气候变化影响的地区。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection and Public Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

1.50%

发文量

203

审稿时长

96 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection and Public Health, first official journal of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and the Saudi Association for Public Health, aims to be the foremost scientific, peer-reviewed journal encompassing infection prevention and control, microbiology, infectious diseases, public health and the application of healthcare epidemiology to the evaluation of health outcomes. The point of view of the journal is that infection and public health are closely intertwined and that advances in one area will have positive consequences on the other. The journal will be useful to all health professionals who are partners in the management of patients with communicable diseases, keeping them up to date. The journal is proud to have an international and diverse editorial board that will assist and facilitate the publication of articles that reflect a global view on infection control and public health, as well as emphasizing our focus on supporting the needs of public health practitioners. It is our aim to improve healthcare by reducing risk of infection and related adverse outcomes by critical review, selection, and dissemination of new and relevant information in the field of infection control, public health and infectious diseases in all healthcare settings and the community.