Assessing the Potential of Alternative Fuels to Decarbonize Long-Haul Trucking in the United States

Abstract

This work presents the costing and emission analysis of four alternative fuels for decarbonizing long-haul trucking in the United States: methanol and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) diesel derived from biomass, and Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers (LOHCs) and ammonia produced using green hydrogen. First, we model fuel synthesis pathways using ASPEN and perform discounted cash-flow analysis to obtain the fuel production cost. Next, we consider fuel-specific distribution costs and powertrain models to obtain the total cost of ownership. In addition, a well-to-wheel emissions analysis is conducted for each fuel. Cost and emissions are combined to report the cost per tonne of CO₂e avoided, and this metric is used to compare the different alternative fuel options. It is computed to be $125 for biomass-derived methanol, $238 for biomass-derived FT diesel, $455 for green H₂-LOHC, and $647 for green ammonia. For today’s baseline scenario, methanol has the lowest cost of decarbonization for long-haul trucking. Break-even scenarios are also presented at varying biomass costs and electricity prices, along with additional case studies, such as using blue hydrogen for LOHC and ammonia production in the short and midterm until the viability of green hydrogen improves. This analysis indicates that using blue hydrogen lowers the cost per tonne of CO₂e avoided to $80 for LOHC and $175 for ammonia, respectively, which are more comparable to biomass-derived methanol. In the long run, biomass scarcity and expected reductions in clean hydrogen production costs favor zero-carbon fuels for long-haul trucking.