The Impact of Sports Betting Shops on Crime Patterns in Ghana.

Abstract

This paper examines how proximity to sports betting shops affects local crime patterns in Ghana, providing evidence from a developing country context where limited financial buffers may amplify gambling's environmental effects. Using geo-referenced data on licensed betting operators and Afrobarometer survey responses, the study finds that doubling the distance from betting shops reduces crime probability by 3 percentage points. This effect is particularly pronounced for property crimes, with a 5.5 percentage point reduction in burglary risk, while showing no significant impact on violent crimes. Employing distance to regional capitals as an instrumental variable addresses potential endogeneity in betting shop locations, revealing even larger effects in IV specifications. Community cohesion plays a complex moderating role-while areas with stronger social ties generally report more crime, potentially due to better monitoring, the crime-reducing effect of distance from betting shops is amplified in these high-cohesion communities. The results highlight how institutional context shapes the relationship between gambling access and criminal behavior, supporting theories of routine activities and social disorganization rather than strain theory. These findings have important implications for regulatory policy in developing economies, particularly regarding spatial planning and community-based approaches to crime prevention near gambling establishments.