Natural Forest Restoration Potential to Mitigate Climate Change in China

Abstract

China has achieved remarkable progress in forest conservation and restoration through extensive management efforts, including afforestation and the protection of natural forests. However, previous studies on forest carbon potential have primarily foucused on afforestation, while natural forest restoration-recognized for its superior carbon sequestration potential-remains underexplored. This study integrates historical restoration trends with future climate scenarios to quantify the spatial patterns and aboveground carbon (AGC) storage potential of natural forest restoration in China, addressing key knowledge gaps. We first examined the relationship between natural forest restoration patterns in China and climatic factors, revealing that the Mean Diurnal Range was the most positively correlated factor influencing restoration, while the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter had the most substantial negative impact. Based on future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), we predicted potential regions for natural forest restoration and estimated their AGC storage potential. Our findings indicated that by 2100, the area of natural forests in China could increase by 26.03 × 10⁴ to 29.38 × 10⁴ km², with northeastern, southwestern, northern, and southern China showing the highest restoration potential, particularly under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which exhibits the greatest extent of restoration. Further analysis reveals that AGC potential increases progressively with restoration efforts, reaching a maximum of 1,618.53 ± 58.36 Tg C by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our study highlights substantial opportunities for enhancing carbon sequestration through targeted natural restoration efforts and the integration of balanced economic growth with proactive environmental policies to promote effective natural forest restoration in China.