Demographic shifts and agricultural production efficiency in the context of urban-rural transformation: Complex networks and geographic differences

Abstract

Demographic shifts (DS) within urban-rural transformations have extensively impacted the socio-ecological systems of developing countries, particularly affecting agricultural production efficiency (AP). Concerns over food security and agricultural decline have sparked widespread criticism of these transformations. However, the complex networks between DS and AP remain poorly understood. This study establishes association networks between DS and AP within urban-rural contexts, capturing geographic differences and interactions in Southwest China. AP is calculated using super-efficiency DEA and Bayesian network models estimate the complex associations between DS and AP. The results indicate that rapid aging and large-scale urban-rural migration are the primary DS trends in Southwest China. AP initially declined and then rose, with minor changes in scale efficiency. Bayesian networks confirmed the complex networks between DS and AP, showing that urban-rural migration and population aging are highly correlated with changes in scale and technical efficiency. From 2010 to 2020, urban-rural migration significantly enhanced the positive coupling between DS and AP, suggesting that DS has promoted AP development on a integral scale. However, the DS-AP association networks exhibit geographic differences across various topographical regions. In mountainous areas, population aging, and rural exodus have inhibited AP development, warranting extensive attention. This study's framework aims to achieve sustainable socio-ecological development through the benign coupling of DS-AP systems, supporting urban-rural governance and the sustainable development goals by refining the feedback and interaction processes of coupled social-ecological systems.