Correction to “NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk”

Abstract

Matte, T., Lane, K., Tipaldo, J. F., Barnes, J., Knowlton, K., Torem, E., Anand, G., Yoon, L., Marcotullio, P., Balk, D., Constible, J., Elszasz, H., Ito, K., Jessel, S., Limaye, V., Parks, R., Rutigliano, M., Sorenson, C., & Yuan, A. (2024). NPCC4: Climate change and New York city's health risk. Ann NY Acad Sci., 1539, 185–240. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15115

The original text provided estimates in Section 3.1.2 and Figure 3 of annual heat-exacerbated deaths in New York City (NYC) based on the NYC Health Department's “2023 NYC Heat-Related Mortality Report,” cited as Ref. 25. The NYC Health Department has since published a report¹ correcting an error in the original code and updating the analysis to better account for temporal patterns in COVID-19 mortality. The NYC Health Department has posted an explanatory note online² and released a corrected “2024 NYC Heat-Related Mortality Report.”³

FIGURE 3

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Annual average heat-exacerbated deaths for extreme heat event (EHE) days, and days reaching a maximum temperature of 82°F or higher, including EHE days, in 5-year moving time windows, 1971–2020, New York City. EHE days were defined as at least 2 consecutive days with 95°F or higher daily maximum heat index (HI) or any day with a maximum HI of 100°F or higher. The EHE and days at or above 82°F estimates come from separate regression models. Source: 2024 New York City Heat-Related Mortality Report.³

The corrected text and figure, based on the corrected report, are below. The figure layout has been revised for clarity. The x-axis labels in the figure correspond to the end of each time period rather than the beginning.

Corrected text

In its 2023 report,²⁵ the NYC Health Department estimates that hot weather, defined as days with a maximum temperature reaching 82°F or hotter, kills an estimated 560 NYC residents each year, on average. This includes an annual average of seven heat-stress deaths from 2012 to 2021. By contrast, an annual average of 555 heat-exacerbated deaths occurred from 2016 to 2020; 116 of those deaths occurred during extreme heat events, defined by the National Weather Service (NWS) heat advisory threshold for NYC²⁶: “at least two consecutive days with a maximum heat index (HI) of 95°F or higher or any day with a maximum HI of 100°F or higher.”

Corrected Figure