Towards the Energy Transition:Multi-objective Optimization of China's Provincial Production Capacity of Coal

Abstract

China's energy transformation urgently requires optimization of coal production capacity coordinating economic, environmental, efficiency, and security goals. This study proposes an integrated approach of "dynamic programming - membership functions - non-dominated particle swarm optimization algorithm" to address an inter-period multi-optimization model for provincial coal production capacity considering above goals. The optimization results indicate that coal production capacity will decrease to 3.98 billion tons in China by 2030. Provincial coal production capacity will be systematically phased out in an orderly manner, following the "southeast-central-north" sequence. A coordinated production spatial pattern will emerge in the "guaranteed minimum area", "supplementary support area", and "marginal production area" in 2030. The "guaranteed minimum area" consists of the three provinces of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi, which together account for 72.35% of the country’s total coal production capacity. The remaining two regions accounted for 19.87% and 7.78%, respectively, of the country's total coal production capacity. The optimization results reduced excess capacity by 6.78% compared to the government' s 2025 plan and achieved savings of 3.27% and 3.45% in economic and environmental costs, respectively. It provides a scientific foundation for designing optimized plans and transformational pathway for the scale of coal production capacity across provinces.