A carbon-centered framework for ecosystem service supply-demand analysis in arid China: Insights for ecological zoning under dual carbon goals

Abstract

Climate change and global carbon neutrality commitments have heightened the importance of ecosystem services in sustaining human well-being and mitigating climate impacts. Major economies, including China, have set dual carbon goals (emission peak and carbon neutrality) that underscore the role of ecosystems as natural carbon sinks and providers of essential services. However, the supply and demand of these services in arid, climate-sensitive regions remain poorly understood under these goals. This study addresses the gap by developing a carbon-centered framework to analyze ecosystem service supply–demand dynamics in Northwest China's arid region, a representative dryland area. Using integrated remote sensing data, the InVEST model, and statistical analyses, we quantified five key ecosystem services– carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation, food production, and habitat quality – and assessed their supply and demand from 2000 to 2020. The results show that ecosystem carbon storage increased by approximately 0.26 billion metric tons over two decades, reflecting notable gains in natural carbon sequestration. Water resources, in contrast, exhibited a persistent supply–demand imbalance, with water supply consistently falling short of societal demand. We also found pronounced spatial mismatches: areas of high service supply (e.g. mountainous and oasis regions) often did not overlap with areas of high demand (irrigated farmlands and cities). These misalignments endured despite improvements in vegetation cover and climate conditions. Our findings provide insights for ecological zoning and management in arid regions under carbon neutrality goals, suggesting that targeted strategies – from strengthening carbon sink conservation to balancing water resource allocation – are needed to align ecosystem service supply with societal needs in drylands.