Epidemiological and demographic analysis of liver cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2021.

IF 3.9 2区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Scientific Reports Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-02031-w

Yingwu Zhao, Xue Peng, Zilan Zhong, Wenhao Pan, Jiyuan Zheng, Xiaona Tian, Xinfeng Han

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Abstract

Liver cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality globally, with high Body Mass Index (BMI), alcohol consumption, and smoking identified as major modifiable risk factors. This study assessed global trends in liver cancer mortality attributable to these factors from 1990 to 2021, using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to liver cancer were analyzed by gender, age, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for liver cancer attributable to smoking showed a decreasing trend (EAPC: - 0.844 (- 0.961, - 0.727)), while ASMRs for liver cancer attributable to high BMI increased across all age groups, especially in high-SDI regions. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling indicated that the liver cancer burden attributable to high BMI rose sharply in recent years, with projections suggesting global DALYs for liver cancer attributable to high BMI will reach 145,100 by 2050, predominantly affecting males. A visualization platform for these results is available at http://116.196.73.86:3838/GBD-LiverCancer/ . These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted health policies to mitigate the impact of high BMI on liver cancer, particularly through obesity prevention efforts in high-SDI regions.

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1990 - 2021年可改变危险因素导致肝癌的流行病学和人口学分析

肝癌是全球癌症死亡的主要原因，高体重指数（BMI）、饮酒和吸烟被确定为主要的可改变的危险因素。本研究使用来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据，评估了1990年至2021年由这些因素导致的肝癌死亡率的全球趋势。肝癌死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）按性别、年龄和社会人口指数（SDI）区域进行分析。吸烟导致的肝癌年龄标准化死亡率（ASMRs）呈下降趋势（EAPC: - 0.844(- 0.961, - 0.727)），而高BMI导致的肝癌年龄标准化死亡率在各年龄组均呈上升趋势，尤其是在高sdi地区。年龄-时期-队列（Age-Period-Cohort， APC）模型显示，高BMI导致的肝癌负担近年来急剧上升，预测显示，到2050年，全球因高BMI导致的肝癌DALYs将达到145,100年，主要影响男性。这些结果的可视化平台可以在http://116.196.73.86:3838/GBD-LiverCancer/上找到。这些发现强调了迫切需要有针对性的卫生政策来减轻高BMI对肝癌的影响，特别是在高sdi地区通过预防肥胖的努力。

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来源期刊

Scientific Reports Natural Science Disciplines-

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

4.30%

发文量

19567

审稿时长

3.9 months

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