Mapping the cost competitiveness of African green hydrogen imports to Europe

Abstract

Governments in many European countries have high hopes for cheap green hydrogen (H₂) from Africa to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. Using geospatial levelized cost models, this study evaluates the economic feasibility of exporting green H₂ in the form of ammonia from Africa to Europe under four realistic financing scenarios by 2030. Our findings suggest that without European policy interventions, green H₂ from Africa remains prohibitively expensive with least costs from €4.2 kg_H2⁻¹ to €4.9 kg_H2⁻¹ depending on the interest rate environment. Using de-risking policy, we identify 214 locations in six African countries that may be competitive in the current interest rate environment, yet many of these face a challenging security situation casting doubt on long-term investments. Under optimal policy and interest rate scenarios, we find a least cost of €3.2 kg_H2⁻¹ in Mauritania by 2030. Overall, de-risking and strategic location selection are key to make African green H₂ exports competitive on the global stage.