Development of a Dynamic Stochastic Compartmental Model of Zoonotic Toxocariasis Transmission

IF 2.3 2区农林科学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Zoonoses and Public Health Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI:10.1111/zph.13226

Alistair Antonopoulos, Alessio Giannelli, Eric R. Morgan, Johannes Charlier

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction

Toxocariasis is a neglected zoonosis caused by ascarid nematodes of canids and felids. It is a global problem, affecting individuals in high, low, and middle-income countries. The burden of disease has previously been estimated at > 90,000 DALYs lost per year due to toxocariasis, and $2.5 billion annually in economic impact. Transmission of toxocariasis depends on interactions and contact between humans and the definitive animal hosts, mediated by environmental contamination with long-lived parasite eggs. This can complicate control measures, requiring the adoption of a One Health approach. Within this context, dynamic models of transmission can have an important role to play in improving our understanding of disease transmission and can serve as effective tools to aid in the development of control strategies.

Methods

In this study, we develop a modified dynamic compartmental model for the zoonotic transmission of toxocariasis from dogs and cats. We further incorporate stochasticity into the model to account for existing uncertainties related to the proportion of seroprevalent individuals who exhibit symptoms of the infection.

Results

We initially use the model to estimate region-specific transmission rates from dogs and cats to humans by iterative model fitting to existing estimates of seroprevalence across a selection of countries. We then examined the performance of the model in estimating the number of human exposures and symptomatic cases of toxocariasis and found a good level of concordance between the model predictions and estimates from previous work. Finally, we use the model to estimate the potential disease burden and economic impact across a range of countries, with the potential for more realistic estimates in countries that may have underestimates for seroprevalence.

Conclusions

We described the first zoonotic transmission model of toxocariasis, which can serve as a foundational tool for testing public veterinary health interventions to reduce the burden of toxocariasis. This model represents an important first step to improving One Health control for this disease.

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人畜共患弓形虫病传播动态随机区室模型的建立。

弓形虫病是一种被忽视的人畜共患病，由犬科动物和猫科动物的蛔虫线虫引起。这是一个全球性问题，影响着高、低收入和中等收入国家的个人。此前估计，由于弓形虫病，疾病负担每年损失90万残疾调整生命年，经济影响每年达25亿美元。弓形虫病的传播取决于人类与最终动物宿主之间的相互作用和接触，这是由长期寄生虫卵的环境污染介导的。这可能使控制措施复杂化，需要采用“同一个健康”方法。在这种情况下，动态传播模型可以在提高我们对疾病传播的理解方面发挥重要作用，并可以作为帮助制定控制战略的有效工具。方法：在这项研究中，我们建立了一个改进的动态区室模型，用于犬和猫弓形虫病的人畜共患传播。我们进一步将随机性纳入模型，以解释与表现出感染症状的血清阳性率个体比例相关的现有不确定性。结果：我们最初使用该模型通过迭代模型拟合选定国家中现有的血清患病率估计，来估计犬和猫对人类的特定区域传播率。然后，我们检查了模型在估计人类暴露数量和弓形虫病症状病例方面的性能，并发现模型预测与以前工作的估计之间具有良好的一致性。最后，我们使用该模型来估计一系列国家的潜在疾病负担和经济影响，在可能低估血清患病率的国家中有可能获得更现实的估计。结论：我们建立了首个弓形虫病人畜共患传播模型，该模型可作为检验公共兽医卫生干预措施以减轻弓形虫病负担的基础工具。这一模式是改善“同一健康”对这种疾病控制的重要的第一步。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Zoonoses and Public Health 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

4.20%

发文量

115

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Zoonoses and Public Health brings together veterinary and human health researchers and policy-makers by providing a venue for publishing integrated and global approaches to zoonoses and public health. The Editors will consider papers that focus on timely collaborative and multi-disciplinary research in zoonoses and public health. This journal provides rapid publication of original papers, reviews, and potential discussion papers embracing this collaborative spirit. Papers should advance the scientific knowledge of the sources, transmission, prevention and control of zoonoses and be authored by scientists with expertise in areas such as microbiology, virology, parasitology and epidemiology. Articles that incorporate recent data into new methods, applications, or approaches (e.g. statistical modeling) which enhance public health are strongly encouraged.