Changing Trends in the Cysticercosis-Related Disease Burden from 1990 to 2021 and its Predicted Level in 2022-2050 Years.

IF 1.5 3区农林科学 Q4 PARASITOLOGY

Acta Parasitologica Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI:10.1007/s11686-025-01058-3

Zhang-Zhou Shen, Hou-Qiang Luo

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Abstract

Background: A major worldwide health concern is cysticercosis, a zoonotic parasitic illness brought on by human parasites. This study aims to examine the current worldwide cysticercosis burden in order to serve as a resource for developing successful global control initiatives.

Methods: Five layers of data about cysticercosis were analyzed: gender, age, year, and the regional and national social and economic development index (SDI). The various groups were compared using age-standardized rates, and patterns in the burden of disease were examined and evaluated. Furthermore, from 2022 to 2050, disease patterns were predicted using the ARIMA and ES models.

Results: It was discovered that compared with 1990, the number of deaths decreased by 362 in 2021, the prevalence number increased by 1,318,963, the DALYs decreased by 151,192, and the age-standardized Mortality rate (ASMR) decreased by 0.02 per 100,000 people (EAPC - 2.39, 95% CI - 2.46 to - 2.32), the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased by 9.14 per 100,000 people (EAPC - 1.84, 95% CI - 1.93 to - 1.75), and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) decreased by 17.18 per 100,000 people (EAPC - 1.2, 95% CI - 1.3 to - 1.1).

Conclusions: To sum up, although the prevalence of cysticercosis has dramatically declined globally over the last 30 years, it is still high in many low-SDI nations and regions. Therefore, in order to further optimize prevention and control methods and lower the burden of disease in high-burden regions and countries, it is imperative that international cooperation be strengthened.

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1990 - 2021年囊虫病相关疾病负担变化趋势及2022-2050年预测水平

背景：囊虫病是一种由人类寄生虫引起的人畜共患病。本研究旨在研究目前世界范围内的囊虫病负担，以便为制定成功的全球控制举措提供资源。方法：对性别、年龄、年龄、地区及国家社会经济发展指数（SDI）等5层囊虫病相关数据进行分析。使用年龄标准化率对不同组进行比较，并检查和评估疾病负担的模式。此外，利用ARIMA和ES模型预测了2022年至2050年的疾病模式。结果:结果发现，与1990年相比，2021年的死亡人数减少了362人，流行人数增加了1,318,963人，DALYs减少了151,192人，年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）每10万人减少0.02人（EAPC - 2.39, 95% CI - 2.46至- 2.32），年龄标准化DALYs率（ASDR）每10万人减少9.14人（EAPC - 1.84, 95% CI - 1.93至- 1.75）。年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）每10万人下降17.18人（EAPC - 1.2, 95% CI - 1.3至- 1.1）。综上所述，尽管过去30年囊虫病的患病率在全球范围内急剧下降，但在许多低sdi国家和地区，囊虫病的患病率仍然很高。因此，为了进一步优化预防和控制方法，降低高负担地区和国家的疾病负担，加强国际合作势在必行。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Acta Parasitologica 医学-寄生虫学

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

149

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Acta Parasitologica is an international journal covering the latest advances in the subject. Acta Parasitologica publishes original papers on all aspects of parasitology and host-parasite relationships, including the latest discoveries in biochemical and molecular biology of parasites, their physiology, morphology, taxonomy and ecology, as well as original research papers on immunology, pathology, and epidemiology of parasitic diseases in the context of medical, veterinary and biological sciences. The journal also publishes short research notes, invited review articles, book reviews. The journal was founded in 1953 as "Acta Parasitologica Polonica" by the Polish Parasitological Society and since 1954 has been published by W. Stefanski Institute of Parasitology of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Warsaw. Since 1992 in has appeared as Acta Parasitologica in four issues per year.