Death Risk Score Model of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: A Cohort Study

IF 2.4 4区医学 Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

International Journal of Clinical Practice Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI:10.1155/ijcp/6356936

Gustavo A. Cruz, Thais B. Boteon, Henrique Pott, Sigrid de Sousa dos Santos, Bruna Dias de Lima Fragelli, Cynthia Aparecida de Castro, Joice Margareth de Almeida Rodolpho, Davi Casale Aragon, Fernanda de F. Anibal, Meliza Goi Roscani

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Abstract

Introduction: The aim of this study was to establish a predictive model of risk of mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Methods: Cohort study in hospitalized patients due to COVID-19 followed-up until death or discharge. They underwent clinical evaluation and laboratory tests on hospital admission and were investigated until death or hospital discharge. A death model risk was purposed based on clinical predictors on hospital admission.

Results: A total of 215 patients were enrolled, with 39 deaths. The predictors of risk of mortality were age (relative risk (RR): 3,05 [1.65–5.63]), serum creatinine (RR: 7.39 [3.81–14.34]), peripheral blood lymphocyte counts (RR: 5.94 [3.78–9.31]), platelet counts (RR: 3.26 [1.81–5.9]), serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH; RR: 5.85 [3.75–9.17), and C-reactive protein (CRP; RR: 3.36 [1.66–6.79]). The death risk considering the punctuation (points) above was age > 64 years (1 point), platelet counts < 197,000 cell/mm³ (1 point), LDH > 823 UI/L (1 point), lymphocytes < 373,000 cell/mm³ (1 point), creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL (1 point), and CRP > 7.68 mg/dL (1 point). The death risk considering the punctuation (points) above was 6: 95%, 5: 85%–92%, 4: 50%–88%, 3: 29%–74%, 2: 17%–39%, and 1: 14%–31%.

Conclusion: The routine laboratory on hospital admission may be a good predictor of mortality during the hospitalization follow-up of COVID-19 patients. A score risk may be adjusted and calculated based on these markers.

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住院COVID-19患者死亡风险评分模型：一项队列研究

前言：本研究旨在建立COVID-19住院患者死亡风险的预测模型。方法：对新冠肺炎住院患者进行队列研究，随访至死亡或出院。他们在入院时接受了临床评估和实验室检查，并进行了调查，直到死亡或出院。基于住院的临床预测因子建立死亡模型风险。结果：共有215例患者入组，其中39例死亡。死亡危险的预测因素为：年龄（相对危险度RR: 3.05[1.65 ~ 5.63]）、血清肌酐（RR: 7.39[3.81 ~ 14.34]）、外周血淋巴细胞计数（RR: 5.94[3.78 ~ 9.31]）、血小板计数（RR: 3.26[1.81 ~ 5.9]）、血清乳酸脱氢酶(LDH；RR: 5.85 [3.75-9.17]， c反应蛋白(CRP；Rr: 3.36[1.66-6.79])。考虑以上标点符号的死亡风险为年龄>；64岁（1分），血小板计数<；197,000 cell/mm3（1点），LDH >；823 UI/L（1点），淋巴细胞<；373,000细胞/mm3（1点），肌酐>；1.2 mg/dL（1点），CRP >；7.68 mg/dL（1点）。考虑上述标点（点）的死亡风险分别为6:95 %、5:85 ~ 92%、4:50 ~ 88%、3:29 ~ 74%、2:17 ~ 39%、1:14 ~ 31%。结论：入院时常规化验可作为预测COVID-19患者住院随访期间死亡率的良好指标。分数风险可能会根据这些标记进行调整和计算。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Clinical Practice 医学-医学：内科

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

274

审稿时长

3-8 weeks

期刊介绍： IJCP is a general medical journal. IJCP gives special priority to work that has international appeal. IJCP publishes: Editorials. IJCP Editorials are commissioned. [Peer reviewed at the editor''s discretion] Perspectives. Most IJCP Perspectives are commissioned. Example. [Peer reviewed at the editor''s discretion] Study design and interpretation. Example. [Always peer reviewed] Original data from clinical investigations. In particular: Primary research papers from RCTs, observational studies, epidemiological studies; pre-specified sub-analyses; pooled analyses. [Always peer reviewed] Meta-analyses. [Always peer reviewed] Systematic reviews. From October 2009, special priority will be given to systematic reviews. [Always peer reviewed] Non-systematic/narrative reviews. From October 2009, reviews that are not systematic will be considered only if they include a discrete Methods section that must explicitly describe the authors'' approach. Special priority will, however, be given to systematic reviews. [Always peer reviewed] ''How to…'' papers. Example. [Always peer reviewed] Consensus statements. [Always peer reviewed] Short reports. [Always peer reviewed] Letters. [Peer reviewed at the editor''s discretion] International scope IJCP publishes work from investigators globally. Around 30% of IJCP articles list an author from the UK. Around 30% of IJCP articles list an author from the USA or Canada. Around 45% of IJCP articles list an author from a European country that is not the UK. Around 15% of articles published in IJCP list an author from a country in the Asia-Pacific region.