Conspiracy Beliefs in Times of Covid-19: How Does Right-Wing Authoritarianism Mediate the Link Between Tolerance for Ambiguity and Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories?

Abstract

Conspiracy beliefs have become a focus of media attention in recent years. Especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, it has become evident that conspiracy beliefs are not just a harmless phenomenon but can actually pose a challenge to social cohesion. This paper hypothesizes that tolerance for ambiguity—the ability to deal with ambiguous stimuli and situations—plays an important role in the emergence of Covid-19 conspiracy beliefs. Theoretically, the connection between tolerance for ambiguity and the emergence of conspiracy beliefs can be understood as an epistemic motivation—a desire for understanding, accuracy, and subjective certainty. Empirically, few studies have examined this relationship, and those that have found only small negative associations. However, these assessments were conducted using unreliable scales for measuring tolerance for ambiguity and neglected the concept of right-wing authoritarianism, which is associated with tolerance for ambiguity and can become salient during times of crisis, such as a pandemic. To reexamine this relationship, a survey instrument for tolerance for ambiguity, recently validated for the German-language context, was applied. The data for this study were collected via an online panel surveyed between November 2020 and June 2021. After identifying confounding variables using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), random-effects panel models are computed using data from two waves (n = 3819 observations, N = 2244 persons). To test the mediation assumption regarding right-wing authoritarianism, structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied to data from the second wave. Results show that tolerance for ambiguity has no significant direct impact on Covid-19 conspiracy beliefs, but an indirect effect via right-wing authoritarianism.