The effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the maternal mortality rate and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal in Brazil.

Abstract

Background: Reducing maternal mortality is a global health priority, as maternal death is an outcome that strongly impacts health services, the economy, and society. In addition to being a serious violation of women's reproductive rights, it is an important health indicator for a certain country, region, or health system. Despite recognition of several preventive measures, reducing maternal mortality is a complex and multifactorial task that involves social, individual, and local health system determinants. Brazil is in a transitional stage, characterized by its broad range of health services and even excessive interventions in childbirth care, such as caesarean sections. The Covid-19 has intensified these challenges, exposing weaknesses in the health system and impacting access to adequate care during pregnancy, childbirth and postpartum. However, inequities in pregnant and postpartum women's health care coexist with the advances, and preventable maternal deaths prevail in the country. This study aims to analyze the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in different Brazilian states over a 24-year historical time series, from 2000 to 2023.

Methods: This is an epidemiological study with an ecological design carried out with secondary data by the Mortality Information System, selecting direct and indirect causes of maternal mortality in the Brazil, country's five macro-regions in the Brazil (North, Northeast, Midwest, South, and Southeast) and states from 2000 to 2023. Correction factors were applied to calculate the MMR per year. For the time trend analysis, we used the interrupted time series (IST) analysis, conducted through the Prais-Winsten linear regression model for Brazil, by state and for five Brazilian regions, as well as the maternal mortality ratio, stratified by direct and indirect causes. IST is one of the most robust approaches for measuring the effects of sudden political, economic, or natural events when time series data are available. We also calculated the annual percentage change (APC). In this study, 'impact' refers to any measurable change in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) due to the Covid-19 pandemic. A 'positive impact' indicates an increase in MMR due to the Covid-19 pandemic, while a 'negative impact' reflects a decrease in MMR due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The ITS model was used to detect possible changes in level and trend (slope) after the intervention, enabling a robust analysis of the direct and indirect effects of events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, on maternal mortality.

Results: During the period studied, 2021 had the highest maternal mortality ratio (MMR) at 113.14 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, with significant inequalities across the states and regions of Brazil. The temporal trend analysis of the MMR showed a decreasing trend for Brazil, as well as for the Northeast and South regions. COVID-19 had a positive impact, meaning an increase, on the MMR for Brazil, the Northeast, and the South regions. Regarding the MMR due to direct causes, a stationary trend was observed for Brazil, with an increasing trend in the North region and a decreasing trend in the South region. Concerning MMR due to indirect causes, Brazil showed an increasing trend, as did the Midwest, North, Northeast, and Southeast regions. Additionally, there was a positive impact from COVID-19 on MMR due to indirect causes in the Federal District, Rondônia, Pará, Maranhão, Rio Grande do Norte, Alagoas, Sergipe, and Bahia.

Conclusion: Reducing maternal mortality remains a challenge for Brazil, both due to direct and indirect causes. Therefore, it is recommended to implement multisectoral actions that involve public health policies, in conjunction with other measures aimed at enhancing women's health and living conditions.