Lili Qu , Zheng Sun , Zhiyuan Tian , J.M. Schoorl , Rui Ma , Yan Zhao , Yihang Wu , Yin Liang
{"title":"Climate-driven spatiotemporal variation of soil erodibility in China","authors":"Lili Qu , Zheng Sun , Zhiyuan Tian , J.M. Schoorl , Rui Ma , Yan Zhao , Yihang Wu , Yin Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107998","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the long-term variation of soil erodibility is essential for effectively addressing the risk of soil degradation and erosion, particularly against the backdrop of global climate change. However, the climate change-driven variation in soil erodibility (<em>K</em> factor) has not been studied yet. This research utilized 9579 historical soil sample data from China collected in the 1980s and 2010s, along with the future climate data from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, to investigate spatiotemporal change of soil erodibility in China from 1980 to 2100. The Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) were employed to calculate and predict <em>K</em> values for the 0–30 cm topsoil, respectively. The QRF prediction model achieved acceptable accuracy, with an R<sup>2</sup> of 0.485. Spatially, the distribution pattern of the <em>K</em> factor from 1980 to 2100 remained relatively consistent, with higher values in the central-eastern, northeastern regions, and lower values in the northwestern, southern regions. Historically, a decreasing trend was observed in the <em>K</em> factor between the 1980s and 2010s. In the future, the <em>K</em> factors are projected to increase in northern China and decrease in southern China under both scenarios, with more pronounced changes under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Elevation and climate variables have been identified as the most important factors influencing the spatial and temporal changes of the <em>K</em> factor. Land use conversion and economic factors also influence the <em>K</em> factor changes. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on soil resources and offers scientific support for the development of adaptive soil conservation policies, indicating that policymakers must adopt region-specific land management strategies to mitigate future changes in soil erodibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 107998"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925525001957","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Understanding the long-term variation of soil erodibility is essential for effectively addressing the risk of soil degradation and erosion, particularly against the backdrop of global climate change. However, the climate change-driven variation in soil erodibility (K factor) has not been studied yet. This research utilized 9579 historical soil sample data from China collected in the 1980s and 2010s, along with the future climate data from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, to investigate spatiotemporal change of soil erodibility in China from 1980 to 2100. The Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model and Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) were employed to calculate and predict K values for the 0–30 cm topsoil, respectively. The QRF prediction model achieved acceptable accuracy, with an R2 of 0.485. Spatially, the distribution pattern of the K factor from 1980 to 2100 remained relatively consistent, with higher values in the central-eastern, northeastern regions, and lower values in the northwestern, southern regions. Historically, a decreasing trend was observed in the K factor between the 1980s and 2010s. In the future, the K factors are projected to increase in northern China and decrease in southern China under both scenarios, with more pronounced changes under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Elevation and climate variables have been identified as the most important factors influencing the spatial and temporal changes of the K factor. Land use conversion and economic factors also influence the K factor changes. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on soil resources and offers scientific support for the development of adaptive soil conservation policies, indicating that policymakers must adopt region-specific land management strategies to mitigate future changes in soil erodibility.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Impact Assessment Review is an interdisciplinary journal that serves a global audience of practitioners, policymakers, and academics involved in assessing the environmental impact of policies, projects, processes, and products. The journal focuses on innovative theory and practice in environmental impact assessment (EIA). Papers are expected to present innovative ideas, be topical, and coherent. The journal emphasizes concepts, methods, techniques, approaches, and systems related to EIA theory and practice.