Price impacts of natural gas chokepoints on China: an energy security analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

IF 4.4 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101985

Yu Zhang , Xin Yu , Peng Zhang , Haoran Zhang

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Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, one of the most significant geopolitical events in recent years, has had profound and lasting effects on the global energy landscape, particularly the natural gas market. This study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) methodology to evaluate the impact of the conflict and EU emergency policies on natural gas prices in the EU, utilizing data from the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) for the period 2020–2024 divided into short, medium, and long-term phases. The findings reveal that (1) the conflict significantly drove up EU natural gas prices, with increases of 381.9 %, 271.6 %, and 172.7 % in the short, medium, and long terms, respectively, compared to the control group, demonstrating both persistent and diminishing effects; (2) implementing EU emergency policies initially resulted in a 396 % price increase compared to the control group, indicating a pronounced short-term negative impact that weakened over time; (3) rising prices of alternative energy sources continue to support increases in natural gas prices; and (4) a close geopolitical relationship with Russia may temporarily ease price pressures, while strong ties with Ukraine tend to elevate prices, though these effects quickly diminish. In conclusion, China should enhance the identification of strategic risks, design effective emergency plans considering potential adverse impacts, strengthen the construction of alternative energy systems and gas reserves, and leverage the rigid characteristics of its natural gas supply chain to improve overall resilience and efficiency.

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天然气价格瓶颈对中国的影响：俄乌冲突的能源安全分析

俄乌冲突是近年来最重要的地缘政治事件之一，对全球能源格局，尤其是天然气市场产生了深远而持久的影响。本研究采用差异中的差异（DID）方法来评估冲突和欧盟紧急政策对欧盟天然气价格的影响，利用荷兰所有权转让基金（TTF）在2020-2024年期间的数据，分为短期、中期和长期阶段。研究结果表明：(1)冲突显著推高了欧盟天然气价格，与对照组相比，短期、中期和长期分别上涨了381.9%、271.6%和172.7%，且影响持续存在，影响逐渐减弱；(2)与对照组相比，实施欧盟紧急政策最初导致价格上涨396%，表明短期负面影响明显，随着时间的推移而减弱；(3)替代能源价格上涨继续支撑天然气价格上涨；(4)与俄罗斯的密切地缘政治关系可能会暂时缓解价格压力，而与乌克兰的密切关系往往会推高价格，尽管这些影响很快就会消失。综上所述，中国应加强对战略风险的识别，考虑潜在的不利影响，设计有效的应急计划，加强替代能源系统和天然气储备的建设，并利用其天然气供应链的刚性特点，提高整体弹性和效率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.