COVID-19 case fatality ratio and survival among hospitalized adults in Goiás, 2020: a cohort study.

Abstract

Objective: To describe clinical-epidemiological and therapeutic aspects and to estimate case fatality ratio and risk factors for lower in-hospital survival due to COVID-19.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study conducted in the state of Goiás, Brazil, in 2020, with data obtained from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System and through a review of clinical records and hospital. Relative risk for in-hospital death was estimated and Poisson multiple regression and Cox regression analyses were performed. Survival functions were compared using the log-rank test and represented by Kaplan-Meier curves.

Results: The sample consisted of 651 adults, whose median age was 59 years, 57.0% were admitted to public hospitals, 61.1% had severe acute respiratory syndrome on admission and 72.0% had at least one comorbidity, the most frequent being hypertension , diabetes and obesity. The overall case fatality ratio was 17.5% (95% confidence interval, 95%CI 14.7; 20.6), with no significant difference between public and private hospitals. The case fatality ratio was higher in the ≥60 years age group (prevalence ratio, PR 1.26; 95%CI 1.01; 1.58), in hypertensive patients (PR 1.41; 95%CI 1.14; 1 .74) and in those undergoing intensive care (PR 2.68; 95%CI 1.13; 6.32) and mechanical ventilation (PR 11.15; 95%CI 5.53; 22.46). The median time between hospital admission and death was 10 days (interquartile range, 6-18). Survival was lower in the ≥60 years age group (adjusted hazard ratio, HR 1.93; 95%CI 1.26; 2.95) and in those undergoing mechanical ventilation (HR 10.13; 95%CI 6.03; 17. 02).

Conclusion: Factors related to comorbidities and severity were independent predictors of shorter in-hospital survival among patients with COVID-19.