Potentially suitable geographical area for Pulsatilla chinensis Regel under current and future climatic scenarios based on the MaxEnt model.

IF 4.1 2区生物学 Q1 PLANT SCIENCES

Frontiers in Plant Science Pub Date : 2025-05-14 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.3389/fpls.2025.1538566

Yanan Wu, Lanmeng Yan, Hongjian Shen, Rui Guan, Qianqian Ge, Ling Huang, Emelda Rosseleena Rohani, Jinmei Ou, Rongchun Han, Xiaohui Tong

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change has significantly impacted the distribution patterns of medicinal plants, highlighting the need for accurate models to predict future habitat shifts. In this study, the Maximum Entropy model to analyze the habitat distribution of Pulsatilla chinensis (Bunge) Regel under current conditions and two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Based on 105 occurrence records and 12 environmental variables, precipitation of the wettest quarter, isothermality, average November temperature, and the standard deviation of temperature seasonality were identified as key factors influencing the habitat suitability for P. chinensis. The reliability of the model was supported by a mean area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.916 and a True Skill Statistic (TSS) value of 0.608. The results indicated that although the total suitable habitat for P. chinensis expanded under both scenarios, the highly suitable area contracted significantly under SSP585 compared to SSP245. This suggests the importance of incorporating climate change considerations into P. chinensis management strategies to address potential challenges arising from future ecosystem dynamics.

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基于MaxEnt模型的当前和未来气候情景下白头翁的潜在适宜地理区域。

气候变化对药用植物的分布格局产生了重大影响，因此需要建立准确的模型来预测未来栖息地的变化。本文采用最大熵模型分析了白头翁（pulsatila chinensis (Bunge) Regel）在当前条件和未来两种气候情景（SSP245和SSP585）下的生境分布。基于105个发生记录和12个环境变量，确定了最湿季降水、等温线、11月平均气温和温度季节性标准差是影响柽柳生境适宜性的关键因素。平均曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.916，真实技能统计（TSS）值为0.608，支持模型的可靠性。结果表明：两种情况下，虽然柽桐适宜生境总体面积均有所扩大，但高度适宜生境面积明显缩小；这表明，将气候变化因素纳入柽柳管理策略的重要性，以应对未来生态系统动态带来的潜在挑战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Frontiers in Plant Science PLANT SCIENCES-

CiteScore

7.30

自引率

14.30%

发文量

4844

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： In an ever changing world, plant science is of the utmost importance for securing the future well-being of humankind. Plants provide oxygen, food, feed, fibers, and building materials. In addition, they are a diverse source of industrial and pharmaceutical chemicals. Plants are centrally important to the health of ecosystems, and their understanding is critical for learning how to manage and maintain a sustainable biosphere. Plant science is extremely interdisciplinary, reaching from agricultural science to paleobotany, and molecular physiology to ecology. It uses the latest developments in computer science, optics, molecular biology and genomics to address challenges in model systems, agricultural crops, and ecosystems. Plant science research inquires into the form, function, development, diversity, reproduction, evolution and uses of both higher and lower plants and their interactions with other organisms throughout the biosphere. Frontiers in Plant Science welcomes outstanding contributions in any field of plant science from basic to applied research, from organismal to molecular studies, from single plant analysis to studies of populations and whole ecosystems, and from molecular to biophysical to computational approaches. Frontiers in Plant Science publishes articles on the most outstanding discoveries across a wide research spectrum of Plant Science. The mission of Frontiers in Plant Science is to bring all relevant Plant Science areas together on a single platform.