No Minerals, No Megawatts: How material costs and availability shape the future of the US power sector

Abstract

The resilience of the US power sector is increasingly challenged by material price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions, necessitating a deeper understanding of their impacts on energy capacity expansion, infrastructure and system costs, and emissions. This paper quantifies the effects of material price and availability shocks on the power sector across permutations of fossil fuel and electricity capacity cost assumptions. Our findings reveal that extreme price shocks in major metals are the most disruptive to power system development; minor metal disruptions, taken together, can also have an equal impact when strictly unavailable. In response, the system adapts by prolonging the operation of existing capacity rather than investing in new infrastructure, thereby exacerbating reliability, economic, and environmental outcomes. This research underscores the importance of moving beyond traditional, static methods of assessing energy system resilience to a dynamic approach that considers the interactions between material availability, cost, and system evolution. These findings have significant implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders, stressing the need for proactive risk management strategies across supply chains that are often overlooked in planning.