What is the focus of energy supply chain relationship management during geopolitical risks? Evidence from the stock market based on transaction cost economics

Abstract

This study examines B2B relationship management practices in energy supply chains under geopolitical risks and their impact on stock market volatility. We analyze U.S. energy firms' earnings conference calls across three dimensions: intra-firm managerial behavior, inter-firm relationship management, and relationship evaluation. Employing Word2Vec and structural topic modeling, we identify specific B2B relationship management strategies deployed during geopolitical uncertainties. Our findings reveal varied effects of these strategies on market volatility. Controls on energy prices, carbon-neutral technological alliances, and ESG assessments contribute to increased volatility. Conversely, strategies focused on maintaining demand in changing markets, long-term shareholder return management, strategic industry communication, and enhanced technological R&D partnerships reduce volatility. Notably, R&D cooperation in LNG technology, customer interaction improvements, and operational efficiency initiatives show no significant effect. Furthermore, market attention moderates the relationship between B2B relationship management and market volatility. Disclosures emphasizing long-term investments correlate with decreased market share and reduced volatility, while short-term investment communications increase both market share and volatility. It suggests energy firms must balance short-term performance with long-term stability in their disclosure strategies. This research advances the application of artificial intelligence in B2B relationship management under geopolitical uncertainty, enriching theoretical foundations in energy supply chain management while providing practical guidance for firms navigating complex global risks.