Empirical analysis of global crude oil transportation network amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Abstract

This study examines the global Crude Oil Maritime Transportation Network (COMTN) in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, focusing on its key structural elements, port communities and interdependencies. The COMTN is constructed using AIS data, along with a trade network built from the UNComtrade dataset. An analysis of changes in community structures within the trade network is then conducted, followed by the application of complex network theory and Point-wise mutual information (PMI) to evaluate port centrality and port interdependencies in COMTN. The findings reveal: (1) Western sanctions on Russia have resulted in a significant redirection of crude oil flows from Europe to Asia, leading to the formation of new trade clusters centered around China, India, and Russia, as well as emerging communities in Europe and the United States. (2) The structural and port analysis of the COMTN highlights the strong central positions of key hubs such as Fujairah, Singapore, and Rotterdam, reinforcing their roles as key hubs. (3) PMIs analysis identifies strong dependency relationships between ports, notably Ras Tanura and Zhoushan, Al Basra Oil Terminal and various India ports. The results provide essential insights to maritime authorities for the development of strategic import network plans and support policy initiatives aimed at enhancing global energy security and diversifying energy supply channels.