Dynamic evolution of rainfall erosivity in different rocky desertification areas and analysis of multidimensional driving factors

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102492

Yingshan Zhao , Dayun Zhu , Zhigao Wu , YuRong Han , WanQing Liu , YuRong Mu , Hua Xiao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

Karst rocky desertification areas in southwest China, covering eight control zones.

Study focus

This study uses Mann-Kendall test, Gravity Center model, and Optimal Parameter-based Geographical Detectors to analyze spatiotemporal distribution and driving factors of rainfall erosivity (R) in different rocky desertification control zones from 1961 to 2020. It also employs NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 model to predict future changes in R.

New hydrological insights for the region

The results indicate that: (1) The long-term average R in region is 4656.20 MJ mm·ha⁻¹ ·h⁻¹ ·a⁻¹ , with significant variations across different control zones. The maximum and minimum R values are found in Karst Peak Forest-Plain (PFP) and Karst Canyon (KC) zones, respectively. Seasonally, summer has the highest erosivity, followed by spring, autumn, and winter, with increasing trends in summer, autumn, and winter. (2) Rainfall is the primary driver of erosivity, with an average explanatory power exceeding 55 %. The interaction between socioeconomic factors and rainfall significantly contributes to explaining rainfall erosivity. (3) Future predictions show that rainfall erosivity will further increase, with changes ranging from −5.78–85.60 %. Notable increases are observed in Karst Hills and Depression (KHD), Karst Trough Valley (KTV), and PFP zones. The center of erosivity is expected to shift northwest, southwest, and southeast. These findings enhance our understanding of rainfall erosivity in rocky desertification areas and inform the update of soil and water conservation measures.

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不同石漠化地区降雨侵蚀力动态演变及多维驱动因素分析

研究区域西南喀斯特石漠化地区，包括8个控制区。利用Mann-Kendall检验、重力中心模型和基于最优参数的地理探测器，分析1961 - 2020年不同石漠化控制区降雨侵蚀力(R)的时空分布特征及其驱动因素。采用nex - gdp - cmip6模型预测了该地区未来R值的变化。结果表明：(1)该地区长期平均R值为4656.20 MJ mm·ha⁻¹ ·h⁻¹ ·a⁻ ，在不同的控制区之间差异显著。喀斯特峰林平原（PFP）带和喀斯特峡谷（KC）带R值最大、最小。从季节上看，夏季侵蚀力最大，其次是春、秋、冬，夏、秋、冬均有增加趋势。(2)降雨是侵蚀力的主要驱动因素，平均解释力超过55% %。社会经济因素与降雨之间的相互作用有助于解释降雨侵蚀力。(3)未来预测表明，降雨侵蚀力将进一步增加，变化范围为- 5.78 ~ 85.60 %。喀斯特丘陵洼地（KHD）、喀斯特槽谷区（KTV）和喀斯特PFP区（PFP）土壤有机质含量显著增加。预计侵蚀中心将向西北、西南和东南移动。这些发现增强了我们对石漠化地区降雨侵蚀力的认识，并为水土保持措施的更新提供了依据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.