Jonathan Kenyon DPsych, Adam J. Carter PhD, Sian Watson DPsych, Jenty Farr MSc
{"title":"Adapting risk assessments to a changing terrorism landscape: Revising the extremism risk guidance","authors":"Jonathan Kenyon DPsych, Adam J. Carter PhD, Sian Watson DPsych, Jenty Farr MSc","doi":"10.1111/1556-4029.70101","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Extremism Risk Guidance-Revised (ERG-R) updates and expands the ERG22+ framework, which has guided terrorism risk assessment in prison and probation across England and Wales since 2011. Developed by His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) Counter Terrorism-Assessment and Rehabilitation Centre (CT-ARC), the ERG-R responds to key shifts in the terrorism landscape, including the growth of online radicalization, greater involvement of younger individuals, an increase in extreme right-wing convictions, and more fluid ideological affiliations. The revised framework comprises 36 factors, building on the original three dimensions (engagement, intent, and capability) by adding a fourth dimension addressing protective and risk-mitigating factors, enhancing alignment with Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) methodology. Its development drew on a comprehensive literature review, consultation with the Correctional Services Advice and Accreditation Panel (CSAAP), external peer review, and a 12-month pilot across custodial and community settings. The ERG-R enhances operational guidance for assessing dynamic risk, including tracking change over time and informing case prioritization, replacing fixed risk levels with more nuanced case management. Following practitioner training, the ERG-R was formally implemented across HMPPS in March 2025. This technical report outlines its theoretical foundations, development process, and practical application and considers its adaptability to jurisdictions beyond England and Wales.</p>","PeriodicalId":15743,"journal":{"name":"Journal of forensic sciences","volume":"70 5","pages":"2031-2041"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of forensic sciences","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1556-4029.70101","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, LEGAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Extremism Risk Guidance-Revised (ERG-R) updates and expands the ERG22+ framework, which has guided terrorism risk assessment in prison and probation across England and Wales since 2011. Developed by His Majesty's Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) Counter Terrorism-Assessment and Rehabilitation Centre (CT-ARC), the ERG-R responds to key shifts in the terrorism landscape, including the growth of online radicalization, greater involvement of younger individuals, an increase in extreme right-wing convictions, and more fluid ideological affiliations. The revised framework comprises 36 factors, building on the original three dimensions (engagement, intent, and capability) by adding a fourth dimension addressing protective and risk-mitigating factors, enhancing alignment with Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) methodology. Its development drew on a comprehensive literature review, consultation with the Correctional Services Advice and Accreditation Panel (CSAAP), external peer review, and a 12-month pilot across custodial and community settings. The ERG-R enhances operational guidance for assessing dynamic risk, including tracking change over time and informing case prioritization, replacing fixed risk levels with more nuanced case management. Following practitioner training, the ERG-R was formally implemented across HMPPS in March 2025. This technical report outlines its theoretical foundations, development process, and practical application and considers its adaptability to jurisdictions beyond England and Wales.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Forensic Sciences (JFS) is the official publication of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS). It is devoted to the publication of original investigations, observations, scholarly inquiries and reviews in various branches of the forensic sciences. These include anthropology, criminalistics, digital and multimedia sciences, engineering and applied sciences, pathology/biology, psychiatry and behavioral science, jurisprudence, odontology, questioned documents, and toxicology. Similar submissions dealing with forensic aspects of other sciences and the social sciences are also accepted, as are submissions dealing with scientifically sound emerging science disciplines. The content and/or views expressed in the JFS are not necessarily those of the AAFS, the JFS Editorial Board, the organizations with which authors are affiliated, or the publisher of JFS. All manuscript submissions are double-blind peer-reviewed.