Public Opinion Propagation Prediction Model Based on Dynamic Time-Weighted Rényi Entropy and Graph Neural Network.

Abstract

Current methods for public opinion propagation prediction struggle to jointly model temporal dynamics, structural complexity, and dynamic node influence in evolving social networks. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a public opinion dissemination prediction model based on the integration of dynamic time-weighted Rényi entropy (DTWRE) and graph neural networks. By incorporating a time-weighted mechanism, the model devises two tiers of Rényi entropy metrics-local node entropy and global time-step entropy-to effectively quantify the uncertainty and complexity of network topology at different time points. Simultaneously, by integrating DTWRE features with high-dimensional node embeddings generated by Node2Vec and utilizing GraphSAGE to construct a spatiotemporal fusion modeling framework, the model achieves precise prediction of link formation and key node identification in public opinion dissemination. The model was validated on multiple public opinion datasets, and the results indicate that, compared to baseline methods, it exhibits significant advantages in several evaluation metrics such as AUC, thereby fully demonstrating the effectiveness of the dynamic time-weighted mechanism in capturing the temporal evolution of public opinion dissemination and the dynamic changes in network structure.