Claudio Deiana , Andrea Geraci , Giovanni Mastrobuoni , Simon Weidenholzer
{"title":"Running the risk: Immunity and mobility in response to a pandemic","authors":"Claudio Deiana , Andrea Geraci , Giovanni Mastrobuoni , Simon Weidenholzer","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105057","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relative effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdowns and work-from-home mandates, depends on whether individuals adjust their social behavior in response to infection risk when policy restrictions are absent. Exploiting geographic variation in COVID-19 exposure during the first wave, three key results emerge. First, we find evidence that areas with relatively high excess death rates during the first wave of the pandemic had relatively low excess death rates during the second wave. Second, using granular mobility data from GPS devices, we show that the same areas saw relatively high mobility during the second wave, which may suggest that the first finding is driven by an immunity effect. Finally, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that scarring, behavioral responses, and immunization may operate with varying intensity across municipalities with different age compositions, yielding observable differences in both second-wave mobility and mortality patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48389,"journal":{"name":"European Economic Review","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105057"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292125001072","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The relative effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdowns and work-from-home mandates, depends on whether individuals adjust their social behavior in response to infection risk when policy restrictions are absent. Exploiting geographic variation in COVID-19 exposure during the first wave, three key results emerge. First, we find evidence that areas with relatively high excess death rates during the first wave of the pandemic had relatively low excess death rates during the second wave. Second, using granular mobility data from GPS devices, we show that the same areas saw relatively high mobility during the second wave, which may suggest that the first finding is driven by an immunity effect. Finally, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that scarring, behavioral responses, and immunization may operate with varying intensity across municipalities with different age compositions, yielding observable differences in both second-wave mobility and mortality patterns.
期刊介绍:
The European Economic Review (EER) started publishing in 1969 as the first research journal specifically aiming to contribute to the development and application of economics as a science in Europe. As a broad-based professional and international journal, the EER welcomes submissions of applied and theoretical research papers in all fields of economics. The aim of the EER is to contribute to the development of the science of economics and its applications, as well as to improve communication between academic researchers, teachers and policy makers across the European continent and beyond.