Prediction of Monosodium Urate Crystal Deposits in the First Metatarsophalangeal Joint Using a Decision Tree Model.

IF 1.1 4区 医学 Q3 RADIOLOGY, NUCLEAR MEDICINE & MEDICAL IMAGING
Jiachun Zhuang, Lin Liu, Yingyi Zhu, Yunyan Zi, Hongjing Leng, Bei Weng, Lina Chen, Haijun Wu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Despite the increasing prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout, there remains a relative paucity of research focused on the use of straightforward clinical and laboratory markers to predict urate crystal formation. The identification of such predictive markers is crucial, as they would greatly enhance the ability of clinicians to make timely and accurate diagnoses, leading to more effective and targeted therapeutic interventions.

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of various easily obtainable clinical and laboratory indicators and to establish a decision tree (DT) model to analyze their predictive significance for monosodium urate (MSU) deposition in the first metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint.

Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 317 patients who presented to the outpatient clinic with a gout flare between January 2023 and June 2024 (181 cases with MSU deposition in the first MTP joint and 136 cases without such deposition). Clinical and laboratory indicators included gender, age, disease course, serum uric acid (SUA), glomerular filtration rate (GFR), serum creatinine (SCR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Statistical analysis methods, including T-test, logistic regression and decision tree, were used to analyze the predictors of MSU deposition in the first MTP joint. The performance of the DT model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and a 5-fold cross-validation method was used to ensure the robustness of the study results.

Results: Disease course, GFR, SUA, age, and SCR emerged as significant predictors of MSU deposition in the first MTP joint in both LR and DT analyses. The DT model exhibited superior diagnostic performance compared to the LR model, with a sensitivity of 83.4% (151/181), specificity of 56.6% (77/136), and overall accuracy of 71.9% (228/317). The importance of predictive variables in the DT model showed disease course, GFR, SUA, age, and SCR as 53.36%, 21.51%, 15.1%, 5.5% and 4.53%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve predicted by the DT model was 0.752 (95% CI: 0.700~0.800).

Conclusion: The DT model demonstrates strong predictive capability. Disease duration, GFR, SUA, age, and SCR are pivotal factors for predicting MSU deposition at the first MTP joint, with disease course being the most critical factor.

用决策树模型预测第一跖趾关节内尿酸钠晶体沉积。
背景:尽管高尿酸血症和痛风的患病率越来越高,但使用直接的临床和实验室标记物预测尿酸晶体形成的研究仍然相对缺乏。这些预测标记物的识别是至关重要的,因为它们将大大提高临床医生做出及时和准确诊断的能力,从而导致更有效和有针对性的治疗干预。目的:评价各种容易获得的临床和实验室指标的诊断价值,建立决策树(DT)模型,分析其对第一跖趾趾(MTP)关节尿酸钠(MSU)沉积的预测意义。方法:对2023年1月至2024年6月期间就诊于门诊的317例痛风发作患者进行回顾性研究(181例MSU沉积在第一个MTP关节,136例没有这种沉积)。临床及实验室指标包括性别、年龄、病程、血清尿酸(SUA)、肾小球滤过率(GFR)、血清肌酐(SCR)、c反应蛋白(CRP)、红细胞沉降率(ESR)。采用t检验、logistic回归和决策树等统计分析方法,分析了第一MTP接头MSU沉积的预测因素。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对DT模型的性能进行评价,并采用5重交叉验证法确保研究结果的稳健性。结果:在LR和DT分析中,病程、GFR、SUA、年龄和SCR成为MSU沉积在第一个MTP关节的重要预测因素。DT模型的敏感性为83.4%(151/181),特异性为56.6%(77/136),总体准确率为71.9%(228/317),优于LR模型。DT模型中预测变量的重要性分别为病程、GFR、SUA、年龄、SCR分别为53.36%、21.51%、15.1%、5.5%和4.53%。DT模型预测的ROC曲线下面积为0.752 (95% CI: 0.700~0.800)。结论:DT模型具有较强的预测能力。病程、GFR、SUA、年龄和SCR是预测第一个MTP关节MSU沉积的关键因素,病程是最关键的因素。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
246
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Current Medical Imaging Reviews publishes frontier review articles, original research articles, drug clinical trial studies and guest edited thematic issues on all the latest advances on medical imaging dedicated to clinical research. All relevant areas are covered by the journal, including advances in the diagnosis, instrumentation and therapeutic applications related to all modern medical imaging techniques. The journal is essential reading for all clinicians and researchers involved in medical imaging and diagnosis.
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