A pre-intervention six-item scale for predicting futile recanalization after endovascular therapy in patients with acute ischemic stroke with large core infarction.

Abstract

Background: Despite successful reperfusion after endovascular therapy (EVT), over 50% of patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) and large core infarction fail to achieve favorable functional outcomes, termed 'futile recanalization'. This study aimed to identify predictors and develop a scoring system to predict futile recanalization in patients with LVO and large core infarction undergoing EVT.

Methods: Patients were selected from the Acute Anterior Circulation Large Vessel Occlusive Patients With a Large Infarct Core (ANGEL-ASPECT) trial. Futile recanalization was defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of >3 at 90 days despite successful reperfusion (extended Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction scale ≥2b). Participants were divided into futile (mRS >3) and no-futile (mRS ≤3) recanalization groups. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the predictive scale, with model performance assessed via a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: Of 146 patients, 74 had futile recanalization. A six-item scale (0-6 points) was developed, including gender, age, systolic blood pressure, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, blood glucose, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. The scale showed good predictive performance (area under the ROC curve (AUC) 0.806, 95% CI 0.737 to 0.876) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P=0.837). The optimal cut-off value of the scale was ≥3 points with 81% sensitivity, 70% specificity, and 76% accuracy.

Conclusions: The pre-EVT scale could effectively predict 90-day futile recanalization before EVT, providing a valuable tool for clinical decision-making and risk stratification in patients with LVO and large core infarction.