Yingjie Guo , Alexander Y. Bigazzi , Xiaohong Chen
{"title":"Potential greenhouse gas emission reduction from active transportation: Comparing travel behavior patterns","authors":"Yingjie Guo , Alexander Y. Bigazzi , Xiaohong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104835","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most research on active travel’s greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts focuses exclusively on mode shift, without examining accompanying changes in the frequency and length of trips. This study investigates the potential reduction of total GHG emissions from the expanded use of active transportation within daily travel patterns. Three scenarios are designed to represent different scopes of travel pattern changes, including changes in travel mode, the number of daily trips, and trip lengths. For each scenario, active and inactive travel mode users are compared using propensity score matching applied to the United States National Household Travel Survey data. A generalized mixed-effect model is employed to estimate the impact of increasing use of active transportation on total GHG emissions from travel. The results show that for each additional mile of daily active travel, an individual’s GHG emissions from travel are reduced by 37 % (176 g CO<sub>2</sub>e) based only on mode shift (with fixed daily trips), by 48 % (861 g CO<sub>2</sub>e) if trip lengths are also allowed to change (with a fixed number of daily trips), and by 51 % (972 g CO<sub>2</sub>e) with no constraint on daily trips. Mode shift primarily affects the shortest (and lowest-emitting) trips, so mode shift alone represents only 1/5th of the potential GHG benefits of increasing active transportation in a way that also reduces trip lengths through destination changes. This study offers a macro-level understanding of the realistic GHG reduction of expanding active transportation and provides a novel analytical framework to evaluate travel behavior changes using cross-sectional data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 104835"},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920925002457","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Most research on active travel’s greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts focuses exclusively on mode shift, without examining accompanying changes in the frequency and length of trips. This study investigates the potential reduction of total GHG emissions from the expanded use of active transportation within daily travel patterns. Three scenarios are designed to represent different scopes of travel pattern changes, including changes in travel mode, the number of daily trips, and trip lengths. For each scenario, active and inactive travel mode users are compared using propensity score matching applied to the United States National Household Travel Survey data. A generalized mixed-effect model is employed to estimate the impact of increasing use of active transportation on total GHG emissions from travel. The results show that for each additional mile of daily active travel, an individual’s GHG emissions from travel are reduced by 37 % (176 g CO2e) based only on mode shift (with fixed daily trips), by 48 % (861 g CO2e) if trip lengths are also allowed to change (with a fixed number of daily trips), and by 51 % (972 g CO2e) with no constraint on daily trips. Mode shift primarily affects the shortest (and lowest-emitting) trips, so mode shift alone represents only 1/5th of the potential GHG benefits of increasing active transportation in a way that also reduces trip lengths through destination changes. This study offers a macro-level understanding of the realistic GHG reduction of expanding active transportation and provides a novel analytical framework to evaluate travel behavior changes using cross-sectional data.
期刊介绍:
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution.
We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.