Weather-induced power plant outages: Empirical evidence from hydro and thermal generators in Europe

Abstract

This paper investigates how extreme weather conditions affect power generators across Europe, with a focus on the differing vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of hydropower and thermal plants. Using a granular panel dataset of daily power plant outages and local weather conditions (2017–2023), we assess the influence of extreme temperatures, floods, and droughts on outage risks. We distinguish between forced and planned outages to identify how operators anticipate or react to weather-related stress. Our findings show that extreme weather events raise outage risks across multiple technologies, though their responses vary. Sudden shocks, such as unexpected temperature extremes, are more likely to trigger unplanned operational failures, while planned outages tend to align with longer-term maintenance cycles rather than immediate environmental pressures. These results highlight the need for climate-resilient strategies to protect energy systems from growing weather variability.