Post-flood selective migration interacts with media sentiment and income effects

Abstract

Escalating flood risks from climate change cause economic losses and alter migration patterns, although their impacts across socioeconomic groups remain underexplored. Here we investigate flood-induced inter-county migration in the United States between 2006 and 2019, and find that floods increase outflow and inflow migration by 2.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Younger, better-educated and employed residents leave, while older, less-educated and unemployed individuals move into affected counties. Such patterns can be amplified by media sentiment on flood risks. Selective migration lowers housing prices but raises rent, suggesting structural changes in flood-prone housing markets. Flood-induced selective migration also has salient impacts on the local labour markets, with net annual income losses estimated to be US$9.3 million and $1.98 million, conditional on education and age profiles, respectively. Our results shed light on how natural disasters influence selective migration conditional on socioeconomic profiles and how information provision interacts with migration incentives.