Large Decreases in Sea Ice Strength and Pressure Along Major Arctic Shipping Routes Projected for the Next Two Decades

Abstract

The observed decline of sea ice in the Arctic, if it persists into the future, can create more favorable conditions for shipping activity in the region. To estimate possible changes in key sea ice characteristics over the next two decades, we use high-resolution climate models. The focus is on two shipping routes: the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. In addition to more traditionally analyzed ice concentration and thickness, we present projected changes in ice strength and pressure, which are especially relevant for shipping hazards. Along both routes, the mean September values of ice strength and pressure, projected for the period 2041–2050, decrease by an order of magnitude relative to the period 2015–2024. The decrease is largely driven by changes in ice concentration, rather than thickness or velocity. Increasing ocean resolution from eddy-present to eddy-rich leads to less reduction of sea ice area, volume and strength with global warming.